Québec’s International Climate Cooperation Program
The Under2 Coalition helps signatories on the path towards net-zero emissions.
The 2050 Pathways workstream supports governments to plan an achievable path towards net-zero emissions. As part of this work, we provide direct technical support and resources to help governments complete ‘2050 Pathways’ analyses.
A 2050 Pathways process starts with a government’s long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goal, and then works backwards to identify the technologies, infrastructure and investments that will be required to achieve it, as well as the costs, risks and trade-offs associated with different policy approaches.
When conducted alongside government agencies, the process helps policymakers by identifying intermediate targets that must be achieved, potential “forks in the road” (mutually exclusive technology options), and emissions “dead ends” (short-term solutions that make it impossible to achieve long-term goals).
The Under2 Coalition has developed exclusive resources for its signatories, including an ‘Introduction to 2050 Pathways’ webinar series which shares the experiences of Under2 signatories that have completed a 2050 Pathways analysis, and a 2050 Pathways Registry and Resources webpage.
There are two main thematic approaches to modelling: Top-down and Bottom-up. There are also hybrid models which incorporate features of both.
Bottom-up models represent technologies from an engineering standpoint and identify investment opportunities. They are well suited for helping regions decouple economic growth from energy demand. They tend to estimate lower mitigation costs than top-down models.
Top-down models employ macroeconomic approaches to decarbonization modeling. They represent technology in economic terms and are well-suited to capturing cross-sector economic relationships. As they are better able to capture these inter-sectoral feedback loops, these models tend to estimate higher mitigation costs and as a result are viewed as being more accurate. There are also hybrid models that attempt to incorporate the best features of both model types.
There are subsets for each of the major types of models, which vary in their complexity, outputs and sectoral representation. Additional information can be found in our Under2 Webinar, “Intro to 2050 Pathways”.
Below is a registry of public pathways analyses that have been undertaken by state and local governments. It will be updated regularly, and is intended to serve as a resource for governments that are considering conducting pathways analyses of their own.
|
Jurisdiction |
Title |
Publication Date |
Models |
Links |
|
California (United States) |
California PATHWAYS |
4/6/2015 |
Energy + Environmental Economics (CA PATHWAYS model version 2.3.2) |
|
|
Washington (United States) |
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Analysis for Washington State |
12/16/2016 |
Evolved Energy, Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (Energy PATHWAYS model) |
|
|
Basque Country (Spain) |
Climate Change Strategy of the Basque Country to 2050 |
7/2015 |
(BIOS model) |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg (Germany) |
The Baden-Württemberg Energy Scenario for 2050 |
7/2015 |
Energy and Climate Protection Goals in Baden-Württemberg (report in German) |
|
|
Massachusetts (United States) |
Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020: 2050 Scenario Analysis |
12/31/2015 |
||
|
Quebec (Canada) |
2030 & 2050 Trajectories Project |
TBD, in progress |
|
For more information, you may contact: Renaud Gignac, Climate Policy Advisor Renaud.gignac@mddelcc.gouv.qc.ca |
|
Western Cape (South Africa) |
Western Cape Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios for the energy sector |
12/2015 |
||
|
New York (United States) |
New York State Energy Plan |
Ongoing |
||
|
Wales (United Kingdom) |
Low Carbon Delivery Plan |
TBD, in progress |
|
For more information, you may contact:
|
A 2050 Pathway lays out choices for stakeholders and helps them understand the timeline for decision making. Stakeholders can include implementers such as electric utilities, petroleum refineries, as well as the consumers who will live in the decarbonized energy system.
A 2050 Pathways Analysis is typically completed in 4 steps:
Step 1: Analyze technical and economic feasibility
This step provides a basic vision for decarbonization.
Step 2: Narrow the technological options
As political context is added and policy decisions are made, the technical options will be removed, narrowing the potential pathways. This helps to establish a better roadmap for decision making.
Step 3: Stakeholders undertake strategic analysis responding to political and policy directives
In this step, information from other regulatory proceedings is incorporated into the pathway while simultaneously stakeholders respond to the policy directives of the pathway. As information flows into adjacent processes (such as electric utility’s resource planning) the lessons from the pathway will be incorporated.
Step 4: Incorporate the effects of new policies
The step speaks to the need to keep the analysis process oriented and incorporate the effects of new policies.
Deep Decarbonization: Transformation of the energy economy consistent with keeping global warming less than 2°C
Pathway: Plan or blueprint to achieve deep decarbonization of the energy system
Energy System: The network of all energy producing, converting, delivering, or consuming infrastructure
In the lead up to the 21st United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP 21), states, regions, and cities around the world demonstrated extraordinary leadership by supporting the Paris Agreement, and backing up their words with ambitious long-term GHG reduction commitments.
Within the Under2 Coalition, several governments have taken the next step by assessing their options to achieve the goal of reducing emissions 80 to 95 percent below 1990 levels or to 2 annual tons per capita by 2050.
Several governments have taken the next step by assessing their options to achieve this commitment. The 2050 Pathways process uses local data to analyse the work that needs to be done across sectors, in terms of the technology, infrastructure and investments that will be required over time.
Our pathways analyses help policymakers understand the costs, risks, and trade-offs that come with different policy choices and supports member governments to make informed policy decisions.
